Merkel (¿Schulz?)-Macron: ¿el relanzamiento de Europa?… en cinco artículos según Sebastian Dullien

Emmanuel Macron sets his sights on economic and eurozone reforms, Wolfgang Münchau | Financial Times | 8 de mayo de 2017

“If Mr Macron is to have any chance of persuading Berlin of the virtues of a common eurozone budget and finance minister he will need to show that he is serious about fulfilling the rules of the European treaties. The eurozone and French economies are in a mild cyclical upswing. There is no better time to consolidate.

The bigger uncertainty is whether he will be able to persuade Germany to reform the eurozone”.

Can Macron Pull it Off?, Dani Rodrik | Project Syndicate | 9 de mayo de 2017

“Macron’s economic ideas resist easy characterization. During the presidential campaign, he was frequently accused of lacking specifics. To many on the left and the extreme right, he is a neoliberal, with little to distinguish himself from the mainstream policies of austerity that failed Europe and brought it to its current political impasse. The French economist Thomas Piketty, who supported the socialist candidate Benoît Hamon, described Macron as representing ‘yesterday’s Europe’”.

Europe needs true fiscal integration, not its own IMF, Laurence Boone and Shahin Vallée | The Economist| 9 de mayo de 2017

“All in all, the idea of an EMF sounds like a generous proposal to integrate the euro area and improve the workings of adjustment programmes. In reality it is a dead end that those interested in building a strong and genuine monetary union should use as a stepping stone to promote a real budget for the euro area and a revamp of its economic governance”.

Après Macron – Schulz En Marche?, Andrew Watt | Social Europe | 11 de mayo de 2017

“The problem is that all the proposals Macron has made for greater policymaking integration – a Euro Area parliamentary chamber, a European finance minister, and debt mutualisation of various forms – have been resolutely and consistently rejected by Germany (and some other countries) in recent years. In principle that could change, of course. However, the initial reactions from German policymakers and economic commentators have been almost universally hostile: it seems they have learnt nothing from brushing off Francois Hollande’s initiatives back in 2012. And here’s the rub: Macron’s linkage of domestic success and German acceptance of EMU reform may sound plausible, but it is wrong-headed. Why should German policymakers change their mind if France were to embark on an ambitious reform strategy?”.

Angela Merkel should seize this chance to remake Europe | The Economist | 8 de mayo de 2017

“If anyone can persuade Germany of this case, it is Mr Macron. It is widely noted in Berlin how pitch-perfect he was on his two pre-election trips here; how well he seemed to understand German sensitivities. His January speech at the Humboldt University, which repays careful reading, deftly intertwined the case for French reform with the case for euro-zone integration, all within a whiggish argument about Europe’s past and future. Moreover, after the French legislative elections next month attention will shift to the German elections on September 24th, and probably to an Italian election after that. That will buy the president some six to twelve months to push through reforms (which greatly depend on the results of those French legislative elections) winning him trust in Berlin. Mr Macron seems to get this: the trust and the credibility have to come first.”

Sebastian Dullien es Profesor de Economía Internacional de la HTW Berlin – Universidad de Ciencias Aplicadas y Senior Fellow del  European Council on Foreign Relations.

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